System and method for using a mobile electronic device to optimize an energy management system

ABSTRACT

Embodiments of the invention comprise systems and methods for using the geographic location of networked consumer electronics devices as indications of occupancy of a structure for purposes of automatically adjusting the temperature setpoint on a thermostatic HVAC control. At least one thermostat is located inside a structure and is used to control an HVAC system in the structure. At least one mobile electronic device is used to indicate the state of occupancy of the structure. The state of occupancy is used to alter the setpoint on the thermostatic HVAC control to reduce unneeded conditioning of unoccupied spaces.

CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS

This application is a continuation of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 12/788,246, filed May 26, 2010, the entirety of which is incorporated herein by reference and is to be considered part of this specification.

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION

1. Field of the Invention

This invention relates to the use of thermostatic HVAC and other energy management controls that are connected to a computer network. More specifically, the present invention pertains to the use of geographic movement of network-connected mobile devices to occupancy to inform an energy management system, to provide enhanced efficiency, and to verify demand response.

2. Description of the Related Art

Heating and cooling systems for buildings (heating, ventilation and cooling, or HVAC systems) have been controlled for decades by thermostats. At the most basic level, a thermostat includes a means to allow a user to set a desired temperature, a means to sense actual temperature, and a means to signal the heating and/or cooling devices to turn on or off in order to try to change the actual temperature to equal the desired temperature. The most basic versions of thermostats use components such as a coiled bi-metallic spring to measure actual temperature and a mercury switch that opens or completes a circuit when the spring coils or uncoils with temperature changes. More recently, electronic digital thermostats have become prevalent. These thermostats use solid-state devices such as thermistors or thermal diodes to measure temperature, and microprocessor-based circuitry to control the switch and to store and operate based upon user-determined protocols for temperature vs. time.

These programmable thermostats generally offer a very restrictive user interface, limited by the cost of the devices, the limited real estate of the small wall-mounted boxes, and the inability to take into account more than two variables: the desired temperature set by the user, and the ambient temperature sensed by the thermostat. Users can generally only set one series of commands per day, and in order to change one parameter (e.g., to change the late-night temperature) the user often has to cycle through several other parameters by repeatedly pressing one or two buttons.

Because the interface of programmable thermostats is so poor, the significant theoretical savings that are possible with them (sometimes cited as 25% of heating and cooling costs) are rarely realized. In practice, studies have found that more than 50% of users never program their thermostats at all. Significant percentages of the thermostats that are programmed are programmed sub-optimally, in part because, once programmed, people tend to not to re-invest the time needed to change the settings very often.

A second problem with standard programmable thermostats is that they represent only a small evolutionary step beyond the first, purely mechanical thermostats. Like the first thermostats, they only have two input signals—ambient temperature and the preset desired temperature. The entire advance with programmable thermostats is that they can shift between multiple present temperatures at different times without real-time involvement of a human being.

Because most thermostats control HVAC systems that do not offer infinitely variable output, traditional thermostats are designed to permit the temperature as seen by the thermostat to vary above and below the setpoint to prevent the HVAC system from constantly and rapidly cycling on and off, which is inefficient and harmful to the HVAC system. The temperature range in which the thermostat allows the controlled environment to drift is known as both the dead zone and, more formally, the hysteresis zone. The hysteresis zone is frequently set at +/−1 degree Fahrenheit. Thus if the setpoint is 68 degrees, in the heating context the thermostat will allow the inside temperature to fall to 67 degrees before turning the heating system on, and will allow it to rise to 69 degrees before turning it off again.

As energy prices rise, more attention is being paid to ways of reducing energy consumption. Because energy consumption is directly proportional to setpoint—that is, the further a given setpoint diverges from the balance point (the inside temperature assuming no HVAC activity) in a given house under given conditions, the higher energy consumption will be to maintain temperature at that setpoint), energy will be saved by virtually any strategy that over a given time frame lowers the average heating setpoint or raises the average cooling setpoint. Conventional programmable thermostats allow homeowners to save money and energy by pre-programming setpoint changes based upon comfort or schedule. For example, in the summer, allowing the setpoint to rise by several degrees (or even shutting off the air conditioner) when the home is unoccupied will generally save significantly on energy. But such thermostats have proven to be only minimally effective in practice. Because they have such primitive user interfaces, they are difficult to program, and so many users never bother at all, or set them up once and do not alter the programming even if their schedules change.

In the hotel industry, the heating and cooling decisions made in hundred or even thousands of individual rooms with independently controlled HVAC systems are aggregated into a single energy bill, so hotel owners and managers are sensitive to energy consumption by those systems. Hotel guests often turn the air conditioner to a low temperature setting and then leave the room for hours at a time, thereby wasting considerable energy. An approach commonly used outside of the United States to combat this problem is to use a keycard to control the HVAC system, such that guests place the keycard into a slot mounted on the wall near the door of the room which then triggers the lights and HVAC system to power up, and turn them off when the guest removes the card upon leaving the room. However, because most hotels give each guest two cards, it is easy to simply leave the extra card in the slot, thus defeating the purpose of the system. Recently, systems have been introduced in which a motion sensor is connected to the control circuitry for the HVAC system. If no motion is detected in the room for some predetermined interval, the system concludes that the room is unoccupied, and turns off the HVAC system or alters the setpoint to a more economical level. When the motion sensor detects motion (which is assumed to coincide with the return of the guest), the HVAC system resets to the guest's chosen setting.

Adding occupancy detection capability to residential HVAC systems could also add considerable value in the form of energy savings without significant tradeoff in terms of comfort. But the systems used in hotels do not easily transfer to the single-family residential context. Hotel rooms tend to be small enough that a single motion sensor is sufficient to determine with a high degree of accuracy whether or not the room is occupied. A single motion sensor in the average home today would have limited value because there are likely to be many places one or more people could be home and active yet invisible to the motion sensor. The most economical way to include a motion sensor in a traditional programmable thermostat would be to build it into the thermostat itself. But thermostats are generally located in hallways, and thus are unlikely to be exposed to the areas where people tend to spend their time. Wiring a home with multiple motion sensors in order to maximize the chances of detecting occupants would involve considerable expense, both for the sensors themselves and for the considerable cost of installation, especially in the retrofit market. Yet if control is ceded to a single-sensor system that cannot reliably detect presence, the resulting errors would likely lead the homeowner to reject the system.

Although progress in residential HVAC control has been slow, tremendous technological change has come to the tools used for personal communication. When programmable thermostats were first offered, telephones were virtually all tethered by wires to a wall jack. But now a large percentage of the population carries at least one mobile device capable of sending and receiving voice or data or even video (or a combination thereof) from almost anywhere by means of a wireless network. These devices create the possibility that a consumer can, with an appropriate mobile device and a network-enabled HVAC system, control his or her HVAC system even when away from home. But systems that relay on active management decisions by consumers are likely to yield sub-optimal energy management outcomes, because consumers are unlikely to devote the attention and effort required to fully optimize energy use on a daily basis.

Many new mobile devices now incorporate another significant new technology—the ability to geolocate the device (and thus, presumably, the user of the device). One method of locating such devices uses the Global Positioning System (GPS). The GPS system uses a constellation of orbiting satellites with very precise clocks to triangulate the position of a device anywhere on earth based upon arrival times of signals received from those satellites by the device. Another approach to geolocation triangulates using signals from multiple cell phone towers. Such systems can enable a variety of so-called “location based services” to users of enabled devices. These services are generally thought of as aids to commerce like pointing users to restaurants or gas stations, etc.

It would be desirable to provide a system that could detect the location of regular occupants of a home or other structure without requiring the installation of additional hardware; that could accurately use such geospatial information in order to detect and predict occupancy, and could optimize energy consumption based upon dynamic and individually configurable heuristics.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

In one embodiment, the invention comprises a thermostat attached to an HVAC system, a local network connecting the thermostat to a larger network such as the Internet, and one or more geolocation-enabled mobile devices attached to the network, and a server in bi-directional communication with a plurality of such thermostats and devices. The server pairs each thermostat with one or more geolocation-enabled mobile devices which are determined to be associated with the occupants of home in which the thermostat is located.

The server logs the ambient temperature sensed by each thermostat vs. time and the signals sent by the thermostats to their HVAC systems. The server also monitors and logs the geolocation data related to the geolocation-enabled mobile devices associated with each thermostat. Based on the locations and movement evidenced by geolocation data, the server instructs the thermostat to change temperature settings between those optimized for occupied and unoccupied states at the appropriate times based on the evolving geolocation data.

One embodiment of the invention is directed to a method for varying temperature setpoints for an HVAC system. The method comprises determining the geographic location of a mobile electronic device that is connected to a network and associating said mobile electronic device to a structure having a known geographic location that contains one or more networked climate control devices. In addition, the method comprises determining whether the location of said mobile electronic device indicates occupancy of said structure by a person associated with said mobile electronic device and adjusting the temperature setpoint on said controller for an HVAC system for said structure based upon whether or not said structure is deemed to be occupied.

In another embodiment, the mobile electronic device is a telephone. In an additional embodiment, the networked mobile electronic device is a personal digital assistant. In a further embodiment, the mobile electronic device is connected to the Internet.

In one embodiment the method for determining the geographic location of a mobile electronic device uses the global positioning system. In another embodiment, the method for determining the geographic location of a mobile electronic device is based upon estimation of the distance between the mobile electronic device and one or more antennas used to receive radio signals from said mobile electronic device. In a further embodiment, the mobile electronic device communicates with a remote server.

In yet another embodiment, the variation of temperature setpoints is logged to a database. In a further embodiment, the variation of temperature setpoints is initiated by a remote computer. In a different embodiment, the temperature setpoints are varied automatically. In a further embodiment, an occupant is prompted to confirm occupancy prior to adjustment of said temperature setpoint.

In one embodiment, a system for altering the setpoint on a thermostat for space conditioning of a structure comprises at least one said thermostat having at least one temperature setting associated with the presence of one or more occupants in said structure, and at least one temperature setting associated with the absence of occupants in said structure. The system also comprises one or more mobile electronic devices having at least a user interface, where the mobile electronic devices and said thermostat are connected to a network and where the setpoint on said thermostat is adjusted between said temperature setting associated with the presence of one or more occupants in said structure and said temperature setting associated with the absence of occupants in said structure based upon the geographic location of said electronic device.

In a further embodiment, the mobile electronic device is a telephone. In yet another embodiment, the networked mobile electronic device is a personal digital assistant. In still a further embodiment, the mobile electronic device is connected to the Internet.

In one embodiment, the method for determining the geographic location of a mobile electronic device is the global positioning system. In another embodiment, the method for determining the geographic location of a mobile electronic device is based upon estimation of the distance between the mobile electronic device and one or more antennas used to receive radio signals from said mobile electronic device. In a further embodiment, the mobile electronic device communicates with a remote server.

In a different embodiment, the variation of temperature setpoints is logged to a database. In another embodiment, the variation of temperature setpoints is initiated by a remote computer. In a further embodiment, the temperature setpoints are varied automatically. In still another embodiment, an occupant is prompted to confirm occupancy prior to adjustment of said temperature setpoint.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 shows an example of an overall environment in which an embodiment of the invention may be used.

FIG. 2 shows a high-level illustration of the architecture of a network showing the relationship between the major elements of one embodiment of the subject invention.

FIGS. 3 a and 3 b show an embodiment of the website to be used as part of the subject invention.

FIG. 4 shows a high-level schematic of the thermostat used as part of an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 5 shows one embodiment of the database structure used as part of an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIGS. 6 a and 6 b illustrate pages of a website that may be used with an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the steps involved in the operation of one embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 8 is a flowchart that shows how the invention can be used to select different HVAC settings based upon its ability to identify which of multiple potential occupants is using the mobile device connected to the system.

FIGS. 9 a and 9 b show how comparing inside temperature against outside temperature and other variables permits calculation of dynamic signatures.

FIG. 10 shows a flow chart for a high level version of the process of calculating the appropriate turn-on time in a given home.

FIG. 11 shows a more detailed flowchart listing the steps in the process of calculating the appropriate turn-on time in a given home for a just-in-time event.

FIGS. 12 a, 12 b, 12 c and 12 d show the steps shown in the flowchart in FIG. 11 in the form of a graph of temperature and time.

FIG. 13 shows a table of some of the data used by an embodiment of the subject invention to predict temperatures.

FIG. 14 shows an embodiment of the subject invention as applied in a specific home on a specific day.

FIG. 15 shows an embodiment of the subject invention as applied in a different specific home on a specific day.

FIG. 16 shows a table of predicted rates of change in temperature inside a given home for a range of temperature differentials between inside and outside.

FIG. 17 shows how manual inputs can be recognized and recorded by an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 18 shows how an embodiment of the subject invention uses manual inputs to interpret manual overrides and make short-term changes in response thereto.

FIG. 19 shows how an embodiment of the subject invention uses manual inputs to make long-term changes to interpretive rules and to setpoint scheduling.

FIG. 20 shows a flowchart illustrating the steps required to initiate a compressor delay adjustment event.

FIG. 21( a) through 21(c) illustrate how changes in compressor delay settings affect HVAC cycling behavior by plotting time against temperature.

FIG. 22 is a flow chart illustrating the steps involved in generating a demand reduction event for a given subscriber.

FIG. 23 is a flow chart illustrating the steps involved in confirming that a demand reduction event has taken place.

FIG. 24 is a representation of the movement of messages and information between the components of an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIGS. 25 a and 25 b show graphical representations of inside and outside temperatures in two different homes, one with high thermal mass and one with low thermal mass.

FIGS. 26 a and 26 b show graphical representations of inside and outside temperatures in the same homes as in FIGS. 25 a and 25 b, showing the cycling of the air conditioning systems in those houses.

FIGS. 27 a and 27 b show graphical representations of inside and outside temperatures in the same home as in FIGS. 25 a and 26 a, showing the cycling of the air conditioning on two different days in order to demonstrate the effect of a change in operating efficiency on the parameters measured by the thermostat.

FIGS. 28 a and 28 b show the effects of employing a pre-cooling strategy in two different houses.

FIGS. 29 a and 29 b show graphical representations of inside and outside temperatures in two different homes in order to demonstrate how the system can correct for erroneous readings in one house by referencing readings in another.

FIG. 30 is a flowchart illustrating the steps involved in calculating the effective thermal mass of a home using an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 31 is a flowchart illustrating the steps involved in determining whether an HVAC system has developed a problem that impairs efficiency using an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 32 is a flowchart illustrating the steps involved in correcting for erroneous readings in one house by referencing readings in another using an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 33 shows the conventional programming of a programmable thermostat over a 24-hour period.

FIG. 34 shows the programming of a programmable thermostat over a 24-hour period using ramped setpoints.

FIG. 35 shows the steps required for the core function of the ramped setpoint algorithm.

FIG. 36 shows a flowchart listing steps in the process of deciding whether to implement the ramped setpoint algorithm using an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 37 shows the browser as seen on the display of the computer used as part of an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 38 is a flowchart showing the steps involved in the operation of one embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 39 is a flowchart that shows how an embodiment of the invention can be used to select different HVAC settings based upon its ability to identify which of multiple potential occupants is using the computer attached to the system.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENT

FIG. 1 shows an example of an overall environment 100 in which an embodiment of the invention may be used. The environment 100 includes an interactive communication network 102 with computers 104 connected thereto. Also connected to network 102 are mobile devices 105, and one or more server computers 106, which store information and make the information available to computers 104 and mobile devices 105. The network 102 allows communication between and among the computers 104, mobile devices 105 and servers 106.

Presently preferred network 102 comprises a collection of interconnected public and/or private networks that are linked to together by a set of standard protocols to form a distributed network. While network 102 is intended to refer to what is now commonly referred to as the Internet, it is also intended to encompass variations which may be made in the future, including changes additions to existing standard protocols. It also includes various networks used to connect mobile and wireless devices, such as cellular networks.

When a user of an embodiment of the subject invention wishes to access information on network 102 using computer 104, the user initiates connection from his computer 104. For example, the user invokes a browser, which executes on computer 104. The browser, in turn, establishes a communication link with network 102. Once connected to network 102, the user can direct the browser to access information on server 106.

One popular part of the Internet is the World Wide Web. The World Wide Web contains a large number of computers 104 and servers 106, which store HyperText Markup Language (HTML) documents capable of displaying graphical and textual information. HTML is a standard coding convention and set of codes for attaching presentation and linking attributes to informational content within documents.

The servers 106 that provide offerings on the World Wide Web are typically called websites. A website is often defined by an Internet address that has an associated electronic page. Generally, an electronic page is a document that organizes the presentation of text graphical images, audio and video.

In addition to the Internet, the network 102 can comprise a wide variety of interactive communication media. For example, network 102 can include local area networks, interactive television networks, telephone networks, wireless data systems, two-way cable systems, and the like.

In one embodiment, computers 104 and servers 106 are conventional computers that are equipped with communications hardware such as modem or a network interface card. The computers include processors such as those sold by Intel and AMD. Other processors may also be used, including general-purpose processors, multi-chip processors, embedded processors and the like.

Computers 104 can also be microprocessor-controlled home entertainment equipment including advanced televisions, televisions paired with home entertainment/media centers, and wireless remote controls.

Computers 104 may utilize a browser configured to interact with the World Wide Web. Such browsers may include Microsoft Explorer, Mozilla, Firefox, Opera or Safari. They may also include browsers or similar software used on handheld, home entertainment and wireless devices.

The storage medium may comprise any method of storing information. It may comprise random access memory (RAM), electronically erasable programmable read only memory (EEPROM), read only memory (ROM), hard disk, floppy disk, CD-ROM, optical memory, or other method of storing data.

Computers 104 and 106 may use an operating system such as Microsoft Windows, Apple Mac OS, Linux, Unix or the like.

Computers 106 may include a range of devices that provide information, sound, graphics and text, and may use a variety of operating systems and software optimized for distribution of content via networks.

Mobile devices 105 can also be handheld and wireless devices such as personal digital assistants (PDAs), cellular telephones and other devices capable of accessing the network. Mobile devices 105 can use a variety of means for establishing the location of each device at a given time. Such methods may include the Global Positioning System (GPS), location relative to cellular towers, connection to specific wireless access points, or other means

FIG. 2 illustrates in further detail the architecture of the specific components connected to network 102 showing the relationship between the major elements of one embodiment of the subject invention. Attached to the network are thermostats 108 and computers 104 of various users. Connected to thermostats 108 are HVAC units 110. The HVAC units may be conventional air conditioners, heat pumps, or other devices for transferring heat into or out of a building. Each user is connected to the server 106 via wired or wireless connection such as Ethernet or a wireless protocol such as IEEE 802.11, a gateway 110 that connects the computer and thermostat to the Internet via a broadband connection such as a digital subscriber line (DSL), cellular radio or other form of broadband connection to the World Wide Web. Server 106 contains the content to be served as web pages and viewed by computers 104, software to manage thermostats 108, as well as databases containing information used by the servers.

Also attached to the Network are cellular radio towers 120, or other means to transmit and receive wireless signals in communication with mobile devices 105. Such communication may use GPRS, GSM, CDMA, EvDO, EDGE or other protocols and technologies for connecting mobile devices to a network.

FIGS. 3 a and 3 b shows a representative mobile device 105 from the front and back, respectively. The front of the device includes a display 202, and may include a physical keyboard 204. Alternatively, a virtual keyboard may be included in a display with touchscreen functionality. For devices with voice capabilities, such as a smart phone, a microphone 206 and speaker 208 enable audio communications. An antenna 210, which may be mounted entirely within the mobile device, aids wireless communications. Modules included within mobile device 105 but not visible from the outside may include memory cards, microprocessors, GPS receivers, battery, etc.

FIG. 4 shows a high-level block diagram of thermostat 108 used as part of an embodiment of the subject invention. Thermostat 108 includes temperature sensing means 252, which may be a thermistor, thermal diode or other means commonly used in the design of electronic thermostats. It includes a microprocessor 254, memory 256, a display 258, a power source 260, a relay 262, which turns the HVAC system on an and off in response to a signal from the microprocessor, and contacts by which the relay is connected to the wires that lead to the HVAC system.

To allow the thermostat to communicate bi-directionally with the computer network, the thermostat also includes means 264 to connect the thermostat to a local computer or to a wireless network. Such means could be in the form of Ethernet, wireless protocols such as IEEE 802.11, IEEE 802.15.4, Bluetooth, cellular systems such as CDMA, GSM and GPRS, or other wireless protocols. The thermostat 250 may also include controls 266 allowing users to change settings directly at the thermostat, but such controls are not necessary to allow the thermostat to function.

The data used to manage the subject invention is stored on one or more servers 106 within one or more databases. As shown in FIG. 5, the overall database structure 300 may include temperature database 400, thermostat settings database 500, energy bill database 600, HVAC hardware database 700, weather database 800, user database 900, transaction database 1000, product and service database 1100, user location database 1200 and such other databases as may be needed to support these and additional features.

Users of connected thermostats 250 may create personal accounts. Each user's account will store information in database 900, which tracks various attributes relative to users of the site. Such attributes may include the make and model of the specific HVAC equipment in the user's home; the age and square footage of the home, the solar orientation of the home, the location of the thermostat in the home, the user's preferred temperature settings, whether the user is a participant in a demand response program, etc.

User personal accounts may also associate one or more mobile devices with such personal accounts. For mobile devices with the capability for geopositioning awareness, these personal accounts will have the ability log such positioning data over time in database 1200.

In one embodiment, a background application installed on mobile device 105 shares geopositioning data for the mobile device with the application running on server 106 that logs such data. Based upon this data, server 106 runs software that interprets said data (as described in more detail below). Server 106 may then, depending on context, (a) transmit a signal to thermostat 108 changing setpoint because occupancy has been detected at a time when the system did not expect occupancy; or (b) transmit a message to mobile device 105 that asks the user if the server should change the current setpoint, alter the overall programming of the system based upon a new occupancy pattern, etc. Such signalling activity may be conducted via email, text message, pop-up alerts, voice messaging, or other means.

FIGS. 6 a and 6 b illustrate a website that may be provided to assist homeowners and others to interact with an embodiment of the subject invention. The website will permit thermostat users to perform through the web browser substantially all of the programming functions traditionally performed directly at the physical thermostat, such as temperature set points, the time at which the thermostat should be at each set point, etc. Preferably the website will also allow users to accomplish more advanced tasks such as allow users to program in vacation settings for times when the HVAC system may be turned off or run at more economical settings, and to set macros that will allow changing the settings of the temperature for all periods with a single gesture such as a mouse click.

As shown in FIG. 6 a, screen 351 of website 350 displays current temperature 352 as sensed by thermostat 108. Clicking on “up” arrow 354 raises the setpoint 358; clicking the down arrow 356 lowers setpoint 358. Screen 351 may also convey information about the outside weather conditions, such as a graphic representation 360 of the sun, clouds, etc. In homes with multiple thermostats, screen 351 may allow users to select different devices to adjust or monitor. Users will be able to use screen 351 by selecting, for example, master bedroom thermostat 362, living room thermostat 364, game room thermostat 366, or basement thermostat 368.

As shown in FIG. 6 b, screen 370 allows users to establish programming schedules. Row 372 shows a 24-hour period. Programming row 374 displays various programming periods and when they are scheduled, such as away setting 376, which begins at approximately 8 AM and runs until approximately 5:30 PM. When the away setting 376 is highlighted, the user can adjust the starting time and ending time for the setting by dragging the beginning time 378 to the left to choose an earlier start time, and dragging it to the right to make it later. Similarly, the user can drag ending time 380 to the left to make it earlier, and to the right to make it later. While away setting 376 is highlighted, the user can also change heating setpoint 382 by clicking on up arrow 384 or down arrow 386, and cooling setpoint 388 by clicking on up arrow 390 or down arrow 392. The user can save the program by clicking on save button 394.

FIG. 7 is a high-level flowchart showing the steps involved in the operation of one embodiment of the subject invention. In step 1302, mobile device 105 transmits geopositioning information to server 106 via the Internet. In step 1304 the server compares the latest geopositioning data point to previous data points in order to determine whether a change in location or vector of movement has occurred. In step 1306 the server evaluates the geopositioning data in order to determine whether the temperature settings for the HVAC system for the structure associated with the mobile device 105 should be optimized for an unoccupied structure, or for an occupied structure in light of the movement (or lack thereof) in the geopositioning data.

If the server 106 determines that the home should be in occupied or “home” mode, then in step 1308 the server queries database 300 to determine whether thermostat 108 is already set for home or away mode. If thermostat 108 is already in home mode, then the application terminates for a specified interval. If the HVAC settings then in effect are intended to apply when the home is unoccupied, then in step 1310 the application will retrieve from database 300 the user's specific preferences for how to handle this situation.

If the user has previously specified (at the time that the program was initially set up or subsequently modified) that the user prefers that the system automatically change settings under such circumstances, the application then proceeds to step 1316, in which it changes the programmed setpoint for the thermostat to the setting intended for the house when occupied. If the user has previously specified that the application should not make such changes without further user input, then in step 1312 the application transmits a command to the location specified by the user (generally mobile device 105) directing the device display a message informing the user that the current setting assumes an unoccupied house and asking the user to choose whether to either keep the current settings or revert to the pre-selected setting for an occupied home.

If the user elects to retain the current setting, then in step 1318 the application will write to database 300 the fact that the user has so elected and terminate. If the user elects to change the setting, then in step 1316 the application transmits the revised setpoint to the thermostat. In step 1318 the application writes the updated setting information to database 300.

If the server 106 determines in step 1306 that the home should be in unoccupied or away mode, then in step 1350 the server queries database 300 to determine whether thermostat 108 is set for set for home or away mode. If thermostat 108 is already in away mode, then the application terminates for a specified interval. If the HVAC settings then in effect are intended to apply when the home is occupied, then in step 1352 the application will retrieve from database 300 the user's specific preferences for how to handle this situation.

If the user has previously specified (at the time that the program was initially set up or subsequently modified) that the user prefers that the system automatically change settings under such circumstances, the application then proceeds to step 1358, in which it changes the programmed setpoint for the thermostat to the setting intended for the house when unoccupied. If the user has previously specified that the application should not make such changes without further user input, then in step 1354 the application transmits a command to the location specified by the user (generally mobile device 105) directing the device display a message informing the user that the current setting assumes an unoccupied house and asking the user to choose whether to either keep the current settings or revert to the pre-selected setting for an occupied home. If the user selects to retain the current setting, then in step 1318 the application will write to database 300 the fact that the user has so elected and terminate.

If the user elects to change the setting, then in step 1316 the application transmits the revised setpoint to the thermostat. In step 1318 the application writes the updated setting information to database 300. If thermostat 108 is already in away mode, the program ends. If it was in home mode, then in step 1314 server 108 initiates a state change to put thermostat 108 in away mode. In either case, the server then in step 1316 writes the state change to database 300. In each case the server can also send a message to the person who owns the mobile device requesting, confirming or announcing the state change.

FIG. 8 is a flowchart that shows one process by which an embodiment of the invention can be used to select different HVAC settings based upon its ability to identify which of multiple potential occupants is using the mobile device attached to the system. The process shown assumes (a) a static hierarchy of temperature preferences as between multiple occupants: that is, that for a given home/structure, mobile user #1's preferences will always control the outcome if mobile user #1 is present, that mobile user #2's preferences yield to #1's, but always prevail over user #3, etc; and (b) that there are no occupants to consider who are not associated with a mobile device. Other heuristics may be applied in order to account for more dynamic interactions of preferences.

In step 1402 server 106 retrieves the most recent geospatial coordinates from the mobile device 105 associated with mobile user #1. In step 1404 server 106 uses current and recent coordinates to determine whether mobile user #1's “home” settings should be applied. If server 106 determines that User #1's home settings should be applied, then in step 1406 server 106 applies the correct setting and transmits it to the thermostat(s).

In step 1408, server 106 writes to database 300 the geospatial information used to adjust the programming. If after performing step 1404, the server concludes that mobile user #1's “home” settings should not be applied, then in step 1412 server 106 retrieves the most recent geospatial coordinates from the mobile device 105 associated with mobile user #2.

In step 1414 server 106 uses current and recent coordinates to determine whether mobile user #2's “home” settings should be applied. If server 106 determines that User #2's home settings should be applied, then in step 1416 server 106 applies the correct setting and transmits it to the thermostat(s).

In step 1408, server 106 writes to database 300 the geospatial and other relevant information used to adjust the programming. If after performing step 1414, the server concludes that mobile user #2's “home” settings should not be applied, then in step 1422 server 106 retrieves the most recent geospatial coordinates from the mobile device 105 associated with mobile user #N.

In step 1424 server 106 uses current and recent coordinates to determine whether mobile user #N's “home” settings should be applied. If server 106 determines that User #N's home settings should be applied, then in step 1426 server 106 applies the correct setting and transmits it to the thermostat(s). In step 1408, server 106 writes to database 300 the geospatial information used to adjust the programming.

If none of the mobile devices associated with a given home or other structure report geospatial coordinates consistent with occupancy, then in step 1430 the server instructs the thermostat(s) to switch to or maintain the “away” setting.

One embodiment of the invention is capable of delivering additional benefits for homeowners in terms of increased comfort and efficiency. In addition to using the system to allow better signaling and control of the HVAC system, which relies primarily on communication running from the server to the thermostat, the bi-directional communication will also allow the thermostat 108 to regularly measure and send to the server information about the temperature in the building. By comparing outside temperature, inside temperature, thermostat settings, cycling behavior of the HVAC system, and other variables, the system will be capable of numerous diagnostic and controlling functions beyond those of a standard thermostat.

For example, FIG. 9 a shows a graph of inside temperature, outside temperature and HVAC activity for a 24 hour period. When outside temperature 1502 increases, inside temperature 1504 follows, but with some delay because of the thermal mass of the building, unless the air conditioning 1506 operates to counteract this effect. When the air conditioning turns on, the inside temperature stays constant (or rises at a much lower rate or even falls) despite the rising outside temperature. In this example, frequent and heavy use of the air conditioning results in only a very slight temperature increase inside the house of 4 degrees, from 72 to 76 degrees, despite the increase in outside temperature from 80 to 100 degrees.

FIG. 9 b shows a graph of the same house on the same day, but assumes that the air conditioning is turned off from noon to 7 PM. As expected, the inside temperature 1504 a rises with increasing outside temperatures 1502 for most of that period, reaching 88 degrees at 7 PM. Because server 106 logs the temperature readings from inside each house (whether once per minute or over some other interval), as well as the timing and duration of air conditioning cycles, database 300 will contain a history of the thermal performance of each house.

The performance data will allow the server 106 to calculate an effective thermal mass for each such structure—that is, the rate at which the temperature inside a given building will change in response to changes in outside temperature. Because the server will also log these inputs against other inputs including time of day, humidity, etc. the server will be able to predict, at any given time on any given day, the rate at which inside temperature should change for given inside and outside temperatures.

The ability to predict the rate of change in inside temperature in a given house under varying conditions may be applied by in effect holding the desired future inside temperature as a constraint and using the ability to predict the rate of change to determine when the HVAC system must be turned on in order to reach the desired temperature at the desired time. The ability of an HVAC system to vary turn-on time in order to achieve a setpoint with minimum energy use may be thought of as Just In Time (JIT) optimization.

FIG. 10 shows a flowchart illustrating the high-level process for controlling a just-in-time (JIT) event. In step 1512, the server determines whether a specific thermostat 108 is scheduled to run the preconditioning program. If, not, the program terminates. If it so scheduled, then in step 1514 the server retrieves the predetermined target time when the preconditioning is intended to have been completed (TT).

Using TT as an input, in step 1516 the server then determines the time at which the computational steps required to program the preconditioning event will be performed (ST). In step 1518, performed at start time ST, the server begins the process of actually calculating the required parameters, as discussed in greater detail below. Then in 1520 specific setpoint changes are transmitted to the thermostat so that the temperature inside the home may be appropriately changed as intended.

FIG. 11 shows a more detailed flowchart of the process. In step 1532, the server retrieves input parameters used to create a JIT event. These parameters include the maximum time allowed for a JIT event for thermostat 108 (MTI); the target time the system is intended to hit the desired temperature (TT); and the desired inside temperature at TT (TempTT). It is useful to set a value for MTI because, for example, it will be reasonable to prevent the HVAC system from running a preconditioning event if it would be expected to take 8 hours, which might be prohibitively expensive.

In step 1534, the server retrieves data used to calculate the appropriate start time with the given input parameters. This data includes a set of algorithmic learning data (ALD), composed of historic readings from the thermostat, together with associated weather data, such as outside temperature, solar radiation, humidity, wind speed and direction, etc; together with weather forecast data for the subject location for the period when the algorithm is scheduled to run (the weather forecast data, or WFD). The forecasting data can be as simple as a listing of expected temperatures for a period of hours subsequent to the time at which the calculations are performed, to more detailed tables including humidity, solar radiation, wind, etc. Alternatively, it can include additional information such as some or all of the kinds of data collected in the ALD.

In step 1536, the server uses the ALD and the WFD to create prediction tables that determine the expected rate of change or slope of inside temperature for each minute of HVAC cycle time (ΔT) for the relevant range of possible pre-existing inside temperatures and outside climatic conditions. An example of a simple prediction table is illustrated in FIG. 13.

In step 1538, the server uses the prediction tables created in step 1536, combined with input parameters TT and Temp(TT) to determine the time at which slope ΔT intersects with predicted initial temperature PT. The time between PT and TT is the key calculated parameter: the preconditioning time interval, or PTI.

In step 1540, the server checks to confirm that the time required to execute the pre-conditioning event PTI does not exceed the maximum parameter MTI. If PTI exceeds MTI, the scheduling routine concludes and no ramping setpoints are transmitted to the thermostat.

If the system is perfect in its predictive abilities and its assumptions about the temperature inside the home are completely accurate, then in theory the thermostat can simply be reprogrammed once—at time PT, the thermostat can simply be reprogrammed to Temp(TT). However, there are drawbacks to this approach.

First, if the server has been overly conservative in its predictions as to the possible rate of change in temperature caused by the HVAC system, the inside temperature will reach TT too soon, thus wasting energy and at least partially defeating the purpose of running the preconditioning routine in the first place. If the server is too optimistic in its projections, there will be no way to catch up, and the home will not reach Temp(TT) until after TT. Thus it would be desirable to build into the system a means for self-correcting for slightly conservative start times without excessive energy use.

Second, the use of setpoints as a proxy for actual inside temperatures in the calculations is efficient, but can be inaccurate under certain circumstances. In the winter (heating) context, for example, if the actual inside temperature is a few degrees above the setpoint (which can happen when outside temperatures are warm enough that the home's natural “set point” is above the thermostat setting), then setting the thermostat to Temp(TT) at time PT will almost certainly lead to reaching TT too soon as well.

The currently preferred solution to both of these possible inaccuracies is to calculate and program a series of intermediate settings between Temp(PT) and Temp(TT) that are roughly related to ΔT.

Thus if MTI is greater than PTI, then in step 1542 the server calculates the schedule of intermediate setpoints and time intervals to be transmitted to the thermostat. Because thermostats cannot generally be programmed with steps of less than 1 degree F., ΔT is quantized into discrete interval data of at least 1 degree F. each. For example, if Temp(PT) is 65 degrees F., Temp(TT) is 72 degrees F., and PT is 90 minutes, the thermostat might be programmed to be set at 66 for 10 minutes, 67 for 12 minutes, 68 for 15 minutes, etc.

The server may optionally limit the process by assigning a minimum programming interval (e.g., at least ten minutes between setpoint changes) to avoid frequent switching of the HVAC system, which can reduce accuracy because of the thermostat's compressor delay circuit, which may prevent quick corrections. The duration of each individual step may be a simple arithmetic function of the time PTI divided by the number of whole-degree steps to be taken; alternatively, the duration of each step may take into account second order thermodynamic effects relating to the increasing difficulty of “pushing” the temperature inside a house further from its natural setpoint given outside weather conditions, etc. (that is, the fact that on a cold winter day it may take more energy to move the temperature inside the home from 70 degrees F. to 71 than it does to move it from 60 degrees to 61).

In step 1544, the server schedules setpoint changes calculated in step 1542 for execution by the thermostat.

With this system, if actual inside temperature at PT is significantly higher than Temp(PT), then the first changes to setpoints will have no effect (that is, the HVAC system will remain off), and the HVAC system will not begin using energy, until the appropriate time, as shown in FIG. 12. Similarly, if the server has used conservative predictions to generate ΔT, and the HVAC system runs ahead of the predicted rate of change, the incremental changes in setpoint will delay further increases until the appropriate time in order to again minimize unnecessary energy use, as shown in FIG. 11.

FIG. 12( a) through 12(d) shows the steps in the preconditioning process as a graph of temperature and time. FIG. 12( a) shows step 1532, in which inputs target time TT 1552, target temperature Temp(TT) 1554, maximum conditioning interval MTI 1556 and the predicted inside temperature during the period of time the preconditioning event is likely to begin Temp(PT) 1558 are retrieved.

FIG. 12( b) shows the initial calculations performed in step 1538, in which expected rate of change in temperature ΔT 1560 inside the home is generated from the ALD and WFD using Temp(TT) 1554 at time TT 1552 as the endpoint.

FIG. 12( c) shows how in step 1538 ΔT 1560 is used to determine start time PT 1562 and preconditioning time interval PTI 1564. It also shows how in step 1540 the server can compare PTI with MTI to determine whether or not to instantiate the pre-conditioning program for the thermostat.

FIG. 12( d) shows step 1542, in which specific ramped setpoints 1566 are generated. Because of the assumed thermal mass of the system, actual inside temperature at any given time will not correspond to setpoints until some interval after each setpoint change. Thus initial ramped setpoint 1216 may be higher than Temp(PT) 1558, for example.

FIG. 13 shows an example of the types of data that may be used by the server in order to calculate ΔT 1560. Such data may include inside temperature 1572, outside temperature 1574, cloud cover 1576, humidity 1578, barometric pressure 1580, wind speed 1582, and wind direction 1584.

Each of these data points should be captured at frequent intervals. In the preferred embodiment, as shown in FIG. 13, the interval is once every 60 seconds.

FIG. 14 shows application of an embodiment of the subject invention in an actual house. Temperature and setpoints are plotted for the 4-hour period from 4 AM to 8 AM with temperature on the vertical axis and time on the horizontal axis. The winter nighttime setpoint 1592 is 60 degrees F.; the morning setpoint temperature 1594 is 69 degrees F. The outside temperature 1596 is approximately 45 degrees F. The target time TT 1598 for the setpoint change to morning setting is 6:45 AM. In the absence of embodiments of the subject invention, the homeowner could program the thermostat to change to the new setpoint at 6:45, but there is an inherent delay between a setpoint change and the response of the temperature inside the home. (In this home on this day, the delay is approximately fifty minutes.) Thus if the homeowner truly desired to achieve the target temperature at the target time, some anticipation would be necessary. The amount of anticipation required depends upon numerous variables, as discussed above.

After calculating the appropriate slope ΔT 1560 by which to ramp inside temperature in order to reach the target as explained above, the server transmits a series of setpoints 1566 to the thermostat because the thermostat is presumed to only accept discrete integers as program settings. (If a thermostat is capable of accepting finer settings, as in the case of some thermostats designed to operate in regions in which temperature is generally denoted in Centigrade rather than Fahrenheit, which accept settings in half-degree increments, tighter control may be possible.)

In any event, in the currently preferred embodiment of the subject invention, programming changes are quantized such that the frequency of setpoint changes is balanced between the goal of minimizing network traffic and the frequency of changes made on the one hand and the desire for accuracy on the other. Balancing these considerations may result in some cases in either more frequent changes or in larger steps between settings. As shown in FIG. 14, the setpoint “stairsteps” from 60 degrees F. to 69 degrees F. in nine separate setpoint changes over a period of 90 minutes.

Because the inside temperature 1599 when the setpoint management routine was instantiated at 5:04 AM was above the “slope” and thus above the setpoint, the HVAC system was not triggered and no energy was used unnecessarily heating the home before such energy use was required. Actual energy usage does not begin until 5:49 AM.

FIG. 15 shows application of an embodiment of the subject invention in a different house during a similar four hour interval. In FIG. 15, the predicted slope ΔT 1560 is less conservative relative to the actual performance of the home and HVAC system, so there is no off cycling during the preconditioning event—the HVAC system turns on at approximately 4:35 AM and stays on continuously during the event. The home reaches the target temperature Temp(TT) roughly two minutes prior to target time TT.

FIG. 16 shows a simple prediction table. The first column 1602 lists a series of differentials between outside and inside temperatures. Thus when the outside temperature is 14 degrees and the inside temperature is 68 degrees, the differential is −54 degrees; when the outside temperature is 94 degrees and the inside temperature is 71 degrees, the differential is 13 degrees. The second column 1604 lists the predicted rate of change in inside temperature ΔT 1210 assuming that the furnace is running in terms of degrees Fahrenheit of change per hour. A similar prediction table will be generated for predicted rates of change when the air conditioner is on; additional tables may be generated that predict how temperatures will change when the HVAC system is off.

Alternatively, the programming of the just-in-time setpoints may be based not on a single rate of change for the entire event, but on a more complex multivariate equation that takes into account the possibility that the rate of change may be different for events of different durations.

The method for calculating start times may also optionally take into account not only the predicted temperature at the calculated start time, but may incorporate measured inside temperature data from immediately prior to the scheduled start time in order to update calculations, or may employ more predictive means to extrapolate what inside temperature based upon outside temperatures, etc.

An additional capability offered by an embodiment of the instant invention is the ability to adapt the programming of the HVAC control system based upon the natural behavior of occupants. Because an embodiment of the instant invention is capable of recording the setpoint actually used at a connected thermostat over time, it is also capable of inferring manual setpoint changes (as, for example, entered by pushing the “up” or “down” arrow on the control panel of the device) even when such overrides of the pre-set program are not specifically recorded as such by the thermostat.

In order to adapt programming to take into account the manual overrides entered into the thermostat, it is first necessary to determine when a manual override has in fact occurred. Most thermostats, including two-way communicating devices discussed herein, do not record such inputs locally, and neither recognize nor transmit the fact that a manual override has occurred. Furthermore, in a system as described herein, frequent changes in setpoints may be initiated by algorithms running on the server, thereby making it impossible to infer a manual override from the mere fact that the setpoint has changed. It is therefore necessary to deduce the occurrence of such events from the data that an embodiment of the subject invention does have access to.

FIG. 17 illustrates the currently preferred method for detecting the occurrence of a manual override event. In step 1702, the server retrieves the primary data points used to infer the occurrence of a manual override from one or more databases in overall database structure 300. The data should include each of the following: for the most recent point at which it can obtain such data (time0) the actual setpoint as recorded at the thermostat at (A0); for the point immediately prior to time0 (time−1), the actual setpoint recorded for the thermostat (A−1); for time0 the setpoint as scheduled by server 106 according to the basic setpoint programming (S0), and for time−1 the setpoint as scheduled by server 106 according to the standard setpoint programming (S−1).

In step 1704, the server retrieves any additional automated setpoint changes C that have been scheduled for the thermostat by server 106 at time0. Such changes may include algorithmic changes intended to reduce energy consumption, etc.

In step 1706 the server calculates the difference (dA) between A0 and A−1; for example, if the actual setpoint is 67 degrees at T−1 and 69 at T0, dA is +2; if the setpoint at T−1 is 70 and the setpoint at T0 is 66, dA is −4.

In step 1708, the server performs similar steps in order to calculate dS, the difference between S0 and S−1. This is necessary because, for example, the setpoint may have been changed because the server itself had just executed a change, such as a scheduled change from “away” to “home” mode. In step 1710 the server evaluates and sums all active algorithms and other server-initiated strategies to determine their net effect on setpoint at time0. For example, if one algorithm has increased setpoint at time0 by 2 degrees as a short-term energy savings measure, but another algorithm has decreased the setpoint by one degree to compensate for expected subjective reactions to weather conditions, the net algorithmic effect sC is +1 degree.

In step 1712, the server calculates the value for M, where M is equal to the difference between actual setpoints dA, less the difference between scheduled setpoints dS, less the aggregate of algorithmic change sC.

In step 1714 the server evaluates this difference. If the difference equals zero, the server concludes that no manual override has occurred, and the routine terminates. But if the difference is any value other than zero, then the server concludes that a manual override has occurred. Thus in step 1716 the server logs the occurrence and magnitude of the override to one or more databases in overall database structure 300.

The process of interpreting a manual override is shown in FIG. 18. Step 1802 is the detection of an override, as described in detail in FIG. 17. In step 1804 the server retrieves the stored rules for the subject thermostat 108. Such rules may include weather and time-related inferences such as “if outside temperature is greater than 85 degrees and inside temperature is more than 2 degrees above setpoint and manual override lowers setpoint by 3 or more degrees, then revert to original setpoint in 2 hours,” or “if heating setpoint change is scheduled from “away” to “home” within 2 hours after detected override, and override increases setpoint by at least 2 degrees, then change to “home” setting,” or the like.

In step 1806 the server retrieves contextual data required to interpret the manual override. Such data may include current and recent weather conditions, current and recent inside temperatures, etc. This data is helpful because it is likely that manual overrides are at least in part deterministic: that is, that they may often be explained by such contextual data, and that such understanding can permit anticipation of the desire on the part of the occupants to override and to adjust programming accordingly, so as to anticipate and obviate the need for such changes. The amount of data may be for a period of a few hours to as long as several days or more. Recent data may be more heavily weighted than older data in order to assure rapid adaptation to situations in which manual overrides represent stable changes such as changes in work schedules, etc.

In step 1808 the server retrieves any relevant override data from the period preceding the specific override being evaluated that has not yet been evaluated by and incorporated into the long-term programming and rules engines as described below in FIG. 19. In step 1810 the server evaluates the override and determines which rule, if any, should be applied as a result of the override.

In step 1812 the server determines whether to alter the current setpoint as a result of applying the rules in step 1810. If no setpoint change is indicated, then the routine ends. If a setpoint change is indicated, then in step 1814 the server transmits the setpoint change to the thermostat for execution in the home, and in step 1816 it records that change to one or more databases in overall database structure 300.

In order to ensure that both the stored rules for interpreting manual overrides and the programming itself continue to most accurately reflect the intentions of the occupants, the server will periodically review both the rules used to interpret overrides and the setpoint scheduling employed. FIG. 19 shows the steps used to incorporate manual overrides into the long-term rules and setpoint schedule. In step 1902 the server retrieves the stored programming for a given thermostat as well as the rules for interpreting overrides for that thermostat.

In step 1904 the server retrieves the recent override data as recorded in FIGS. 17 and 18 to be evaluated for possible revisions to the rules and the programming. In step 1906 the server retrieves the contextual data regarding overrides retrieved in step 1904 (Because the process illustrated in FIG. 19 is not presently expected to be executed as a real-time process, and is expected to be run anywhere from once per day to once per month, the range and volume of contextual data to be evaluated is likely to be greater than in the process illustrated in FIG. 18.

In step 1908 the server interprets the overrides in light of the existing programming schedule, rules for overrides, contextual data, etc. In step 1910 the server determines whether, as a result of those overrides as interpreted, the rules for interpreting manual overrides should be revised. If the rules are not to be revised, the server moves to step 1914. If the rules are to be revised, then in step 1912 the server revises the rules and the new rules are stored in one or more databases in overall database structure 300.

In step 1914 the server determines whether any changes to the baseline programming for the thermostat should be revised. If not, the routine terminates. If revisions are warranted, then in step 1916 the server retrieves from database 900 the permissions the server has to make autonomous changes to settings. If the server has been given permission to make the proposed changes, then in step 1918 the server revises the thermostat's programming and writes the changes to one or more databases in overall database structure 300.

If the server has not been authorized to make such changes autonomously, then in step 1920 the server transmits the recommendation to change settings to the customer in the manner previously specified by the customer, such as email, text message, personalized website, etc.

Additional means of implementing an embodiment of the instant invention may be achieved using variations in system architecture. For example, much or even all of the work being accomplished by remote server 106 may also be done by thermostat 108 if that device has sufficient processing capabilities, memory, etc. Alternatively, these steps may be undertaken by a local processor such as a local personal computer, or by a dedicated appliance having the requisite capabilities, such as gateway 112.

An additional way in which an embodiment of the instant invention can reduce energy consumption with minimal impact on comfort is to vary the turn-on delay enforced by the thermostat after the compressor is turned off. Compressor delay is usually used to protect compressors from rapid cycling, which can physically damage them.

The ability to predict the rate of change in inside temperature in a given house under varying conditions may also be applied to permit calculation of the effect of different compressor delay settings on inside temperatures, HVAC cycling and energy consumption.

FIG. 20 shows a flowchart illustrating the steps required to initiate a compressor delay adjustment event. In step 2002, server 106 retrieves parameters such as weather conditions, the current price per kilowatt-hour of electricity, and the state of the electric grid in terms of supply versus demand for the geographic area that includes a given home. In step 2004 server 106 determines whether to instantiate the compressor delay adjustment program for a certain group of homes in response to those conditions.

In step 2006, server 106 determines whether a specific home is subscribed to participate in compressor delay events. If a given home is eligible, then in step 2008 the server retrieves the parameters needed to specify the compressor delay routine for that home. These may include user preferences, such as the weather, time of day and other conditions under which the homeowner has elected to permit hysteresis band changes, the maximum length of compressor delay authorized, etc.

In step 2010 the appropriate compressor delay settings are determined, and in step 2012 the chosen settings are communicated to the thermostat. In step 2014 the server determines if additional thermostats in the given group must still be evaluated. If so, the server returns to step 2006 and repeats the subsequent steps with the next thermostat. If not, the routine ends.

FIGS. 21( a) through 21(c) illustrate how changes in compressor delay settings affect HVAC cycling behavior by plotting time against temperature. In FIG. 21( a), time is shown on the horizontal axis 2102, and temperature is shown on vertical axis 2104. The setpoint for thermostat 108 is 70 degrees F., which results in the cycling behavior shown for inside temperature 2106. Because compressor delay CD1 2108 is, at approximately 3 minutes, shorter than the natural duration of a compressor off cycle Off1 2110 at approximately 6 minutes for this particular house under the illustrated conditions, the compressor delay has no effect on the operation of the HVAC system.

Because the hysteresis band operates to so as to maintain the temperature within a range of plus or minus one degree of the setpoint, in the case of air conditioning the air conditioner will switch on when the inside temperature reaches 71 degrees, continue operating until it reaches 69 degrees, then shut off. The system will then remain off until it reaches 71 degrees again, at which time it will again switch on. The percentage of time during which inside temperature is above or below the setpoint will depend on conditions and the dynamic signature of the individual, home. Under the conditions illustrated, the average inside temperature AT1 2112 is roughly equal to the setpoint of 70 degrees.

FIG. 21( b) shows how with the same environmental conditions as in FIG. 21( a), the cycling behavior of the inside temperature changes when the compressor delay is longer than the natural compressor off cycle Off1 2110. Extended compressor delay CD2 2114 allows inside temperature 2116 to climb above the range normally enforced by the hysteresis band. Because CD2 is roughly 8 minutes, under the given conditions the inside temperature climbs to approximately 72 degrees before the compressor delay allows the air conditioner to restart and drive the inside temperature back down. But as before, the air conditioner shuts off when the inside temperature reaches 69 degrees. Thus the average temperature is increased from AT1 2112 to AT2 2118. This change will save energy and reduce cycling because it takes less energy to maintain a higher inside temperature with an air conditioner. However, the setpoint reported by the display of the thermostat will continue to be the occupant's chosen setpoint of 70 degrees.

FIG. 21( c) shows how the same compressor delay can result in different thermal cycling with different weather conditions. The greater the amount by which outside temperature exceeds inside temperature in the air conditioning context, the more rapidly the inside temperature will increase during an off cycle, and the slower the air conditioner will be able to cool during the on cycle. Thus as compared to FIG. 21( b), when the inside temperature increased to roughly 72 degrees during the extended compressor delay of 8 minutes, a higher outside temperature will cause the inside temperature to increase faster, which results in a peak temperature of roughly 73 degrees, and in wider temperature cycling 2120. The average inside temperature consequently increases from AT(2) 2118 to AT(3) 2122.

It should be noted that the shape of the actual waveform will most likely not be sinusoidal, but for ease of illustration it is sometimes be presented as such in the figures.

Residential air conditioning is a major component of peak load. The traditional approach to dealing with high demand on hot days is to increase supply—build new powerplants, or buy additional capacity on the spot market. But because reducing loads has come to be considered by many to be a superior strategy for matching electricity supply to demand when the grid is stressed, the ability to shed load by turning off air conditioners during peak events has become a useful tool for managing loads. A key component of any such system is the ability to document and verify that a given air conditioner has actually turned off. Data logging hardware can accomplish this, but due to the cost is usually only deployed for statistical sampling. An embodiment of the instant invention provides a means to verify demand response without additional hardware such as a data logger.

Because server 106 logs the temperature readings from inside each house (whether once per minute or over some other interval), as well as the timing and duration of air conditioning cycles, database 300 will contain a history of the thermal performance of each house. That performance data will allow the server 106 to calculate an effective thermal mass for each such structure—that is, the speed with the temperature inside a given building will change in response to changes in outside temperature. Because the server will also log these inputs against other inputs including time of day, humidity, etc. the server will be able to predict, at any given time on any given day, the rate at which inside temperature should change for given inside and outside temperatures. This will permit remote verification of load shedding by the air conditioner without directly measuring or recording the electrical load drawn by the air conditioner.

FIG. 22 shows the steps followed in order to initiate air conditioner shutoff. When a summer peak demand situation occurs, the utility will transmit an email 2202 or other signal to server 106 requesting a reduction in load. Server 106 will determine 2204 if the user's house is served by the utility seeking reduction; determine 2206 if a given user has agreed to reduce peak demand; and determine 2208 if a reduction of consumption by the user is required or desirable in order to achieve the reduction in demand requested by the utility. The server will transmit 2210 a signal to the user's thermostat 108 signaling the thermostat to shut off the air conditioner 110.

FIG. 23 shows the steps followed in order to verify that the air conditioner has in fact been shut off. Server 106 will receive and monitor 2302 the temperature readings sent by the user's thermostat 108. The server then calculates 2304 the temperature reading to be expected for that thermostat given inputs such as current and recent outside temperature, recent inside temperature readings, the calculated thermal mass of the structure, temperature readings in other houses, etc. The server will compare 2306 the predicted reading with the actual reading. If the server determines that the temperature inside the house is rising at the rate predicted if the air conditioning is shut off, then the server confirms 2308 that the air conditioning has been shut off. If the temperature reading from the thermostat shows no increase, or significantly less increase than predicted by the model, then the server concludes 2310 that the air conditioning was not switched off, and that no contribution to the demand response request was made.

For example, assume that on at 3 PM on date Y utility X wishes to trigger a demand reduction event. A server at utility X transmits a message to the server at demand reduction service provider Z requesting W megawatts of demand reduction. The demand reduction service provider server determines that it will turn off the air conditioner at house A in order to achieve the required demand reduction. At the time the event is triggered, the inside temperature as reported by the thermostat in house A is 72 degrees F. The outside temperature near house A is 96 degrees Fahrenheit. The inside temperature at House B, which is not part of the demand reduction program, but is both connected to the demand reduction service server and located geographically proximate to House A, is 74F. Because the air conditioner in house A has been turned off, the temperature inside House A begins to rise, so that at 4 PM it has increased to 79F. Because the server is aware of the outside temperature, which remains at 96 F, and of the rate of temperature rise inside house A on previous days on which temperatures have been at or near 96 F, and the temperature in house B, which has risen only to 75 F because the air conditioning in house B continues to operate normally, the server is able to confirm with a high degree of certainty that the air conditioner in house A has indeed been shut off.

In contrast, if the HVAC system, at house A has been tampered with, so that a demand reduction signal from the server does not actually result in shutting off the air conditioner in house A, when the server compares the rate of temperature change at house A against the other data points, the server will receive data inconsistent with the rate of increase predicted. As a result, it will conclude that the air conditioner has not been shut off in house A as expected, and may not credit house A with the financial credit that would be associated with demand reduction compliance, or may trigger a business process that could result in termination of house A's participation in the demand reduction program.

FIG. 24 illustrates the movement of signals and information between the components of one embodiment of the subject invention to trigger and verify a demand reduction response. Where demand response events are undertaken on behalf of a utility by a third party, participants in the communications may include electric utility server 2400, demand reduction service server 106, and thermostat 108. In step 2402 the electric utility server 2400 transmits a message to demand reduction service server 106 requesting a demand reduction of a specified duration and size. Demand reduction service server 106 uses database 300 to determine which subscribers should be included in the demand reduction event. For each included subscriber, the server then sends a signal 2404 to the subscriber's thermostat 108 instructing it (a) to shut down at the appropriate time or (b) to allow the temperature as measured by the thermostat to increase to a certain temperature at the specified time, depending upon the agreement between the homeowner and the utility and/or demand reduction aggregator.

The server then receives 2406 temperature signals from the subscriber's thermostat. At the conclusion of the demand reduction event, the server transmits a signal 2408 to the thermostat permitting the thermostat to signal its attached HVAC system to resume cooling, if the system has been shut off, or to reduce the target temperature to its pre-demand reduction setting, if the target temperature was merely increased. If thermostat 108 is capable of storing scheduling information, these instructions may be transmitted prior to the time they are to be executed and stored locally. After determining the total number of subscribers actually participating in the DR event, the server then calculates the total demand reduction achieved and sends a message 2410 to the electric utility confirming such reduction.

Additional steps may be included in the process. For example, if the subscriber has previously requested that notice be provided when a peak demand reduction event occurs, the server will also send an alert, which may be in the form of an email or text message or an update to the personalized web page for that user, or both. If the server determines that a given home has (or has not) complied with the terms of its demand reduction agreement, the server may send a message to the subscriber confirming that fact.

It should also be noted that in some climate zones, peak demand events occur during extreme cold weather rather than (or in addition to) during hot weather. The same process as discussed above could be employed to reduce demand by shutting off electric heaters and monitoring the rate at which temperatures fall.

It should also be noted that the peak demand reduction service can be performed directly by an electric utility, so that the functions of server 106 can be combined with the functions of server 2400.

The system installed in a subscriber's home may optionally include additional temperature sensors at different locations within the building. These additional sensors may we connected to the rest of the system via a wireless system such as 802.11 or 802.15.4, or may be connected via wires. Additional temperature and/or humidity sensors may allow increased accuracy of the system, which can in turn increase user comfort, energy savings or both.

The bi-directional communication between server 106 and thermostat 108 will also allow thermostat 108 to regularly measure and send to server 106 information about the temperature in the building. By comparing outside temperature, inside temperature, thermostat settings, cycling behavior of the HVAC system, and other variables, the system will be capable of numerous diagnostic and controlling functions beyond those of a standard thermostat.

For example, FIG. 25 a shows a graph of inside temperature and outside temperature for a 24-hour period in House A, assuming no HVAC activity. House A has double-glazed windows and is well-insulated. When outside temperature 2502 increases, inside temperature 2504 follows, but with significant delay because of the thermal mass of the building.

FIG. 25 b shows a graph of inside temperature and outside temperature for the same 24-hour period in House B. House B is identical to House A except that it (i) is located a block away and (ii) has single-glazed windows and is poorly insulated. Because the two houses are so close to each other, outside temperature 2502 is the same in FIG. 25 a and FIG. 25 b. But the lower thermal mass of House B means that the rate at which the inside temperature 2506 changes in response to the changes in outside temperature is much greater.

The differences in thermal mass will affect the cycling behavior of the HVAC systems in the two houses as well. FIG. 26 a shows a graph of inside temperature and outside temperature in House A for the same 24-hour period as shown in FIG. 6 a, but assuming that the air conditioning is being used to try to maintain an internal temperature of 70 degrees. Outside temperatures 2502 are the same as in FIGS. 25 a and 25 b. Inside temperature 2608 is maintained within the range determined by thermostat 108 by the cycling of the air conditioner. Because of the high thermal mass of the house, the air conditioning does not need to run for very long to maintain the target temperature, as shown by shaded areas 2610.

FIG. 26 b shows a graph of inside temperature 2612 and outside temperature 2502 for the same 24-hour period in House B, assuming use of the air conditioning as in FIG. 26 a. Because of the lower thermal mass of House B, the air conditioning system in House B has to run longer in order to maintain the same target temperature range, as shown by shaded areas 2614.

Because server 106 logs the temperature readings from inside each house (whether once per minute or over some other interval), as well as the timing and duration of air conditioning cycles, database 300 will contain a history of the thermal performance of each house. That performance data will allow the server 106 to calculate an effective thermal mass for each such structure—that is, the speed with the temperature inside a given building will change in response to changes in outside temperature and differences between inside and outside temperatures. Because the server 106 will also log these inputs against other inputs including time of day, humidity, etc. the server will be able to predict, at any given time on any given day, the rate at which inside temperature should change for given inside and outside temperatures.

The server will also record the responses of each house to changes in outside conditions and cycling behavior over time. That will allow the server to diagnose problems as and when they develop. For example, FIG. 27 a shows a graph of outside temperature 2702, inside temperature 2704 and HVAC cycle times 2706 in House A for a specific 24-hour period on date X. Assume that, based upon comparison of the performance of House A on date X relative to House A's historical performance, and in comparison to the performance of House A relative to other nearby houses on date X, the HVAC system in House A is presumed to be operating at normal efficiency, and that House A is in the 86th percentile as compared to those other houses.

FIG. 27 b shows a graph of outside temperature 2708, inside temperature 2710 and HVAC cycle times 2712 in House A for the 24-hour period on date X+1. House A's HVAC system now requires significantly longer cycle times in order to try to maintain the same internal temperature. If those longer cycle times were due to higher outside temperatures, those cycle times would not indicate the existence of any problems. But because server 106 is aware of the outside temperature, the system can eliminate that possibility as an explanation for the higher cycle times.

Because server 106 is aware of the cycle times in nearby houses, it can determine that, for example, on date X+1 the efficiency of House A is only in the 23rd percentile. The server will be programmed with a series of heuristics, gathered from predictive models and past experience, correlating the drop in efficiency and the time interval over which it has occurred with different possible causes. For example, a 50% drop in efficiency in one day may be correlated with a refrigerant leak, especially if followed by a further drop in efficiency on the following day. A reduction of 10% over three months may be correlated with a clogged filter. Based upon the historical data recorded by the server, the server 106 will be able to alert the homeowner that there is a problem and suggest a possible cause.

Because the system will be able to calculate effective thermal mass, it will be able to determine the cost effectiveness of strategies such as pre-cooling for specific houses under different conditions. FIG. 28 a shows a graph of outside temperature 2802, inside temperature 2804 and HVAC cycling times 2806 in House A for a specific 24-hour period on date Y assuming that the system has used a pre-cooling strategy to avoid running the air conditioning during the afternoon, when rates are highest. Because House A has high thermal mass, the house is capable of “banking” cooling, and energy consumed during off-peak hours is in effect stored, allowing the house to remain cool even when the system is turned off Temperatures keep rising during the period the air conditioning is off, but because thermal mass is high, the rate of increase is low, and the house is still comfortable six hours later.

Although the pre-cooling cycle time in a given home may be relatively long, the homeowner may still benefit if the price per kilowatt during the morning pre-cooling phase is lower than the price during the peak load period. FIG. 28 b shows a graph of the same outside temperature 2802 in House B as in House A in FIG. 28 a for the same 24-hour period and using the same pre-cooling strategy as shown by cycling times 2806. But because House B has minimal thermal mass, using additional electricity in order to pre-cool the house does not have the desired effect; inside temperature 2808 warms up so fast that the cooling that had been banked is quickly lost. Thus the system will recommend that House A pre-cool in order to save money, but not recommend pre-cooling for House B.

The system can also help compensate for anomalies such as measurement inaccuracies due to factors such as poor thermostat location. It is well known that thermostats should be placed in a location that will be likely to experience “average” temperatures for the overall structure, and should be isolated from windows and other influences that could bias the temperatures they “see.” But for various reasons, not all thermostat installations fit that ideal. FIG. 29 a shows a graph of outside temperature 2902, the actual average inside temperature for the entire house 2904, and inside temperature as read by the thermostat 2906 in House C for a specific 24-hour period on September 15th, assuming that the thermostat is located so that for part of the afternoon on that day the thermostat is in direct sunlight.

Until the point at which the sun hits the thermostat, the average inside temperature and temperature as read by the thermostat track very closely. But when the direct sunlight hits the thermostat, the thermostat and the surrounding area can heat up; causing the internal temperature as read by the thermostat to diverge significantly from the average temperature for the rest of the house. A conventional thermostat has no way of distinguishing this circumstance from a genuinely hot day, and will both over-cool the rest of the house and waste considerable energy when it cycles the air conditioner in order to reduce the temperature as sensed by the thermostat.

If the air conditioning is turned off, this phenomenon will manifest as a spike in temperature as measured by the thermostat. If the air conditioning is turned on (and has sufficient capacity to respond to the distorted temperature signal caused by the sunlight), this phenomenon will likely manifest as relatively small changes in the temperature as sensed by the thermostat, but significantly increased HVAC usage (as well as excessively lowered temperatures in the rest of the house, but this result may not be directly measured in a single sensor environment).

An embodiment of the system, in contrast, has multiple mechanisms that will allow it to correct for such distortions. First, because an embodiment of the subject system compares the internal readings from House C with the external temperature, it will be obvious that the rise in temperature at 4:00 PM is not correlated with a corresponding change in outside temperature. Second, because the system is also monitoring the readings from the thermostat in nearby House D, which (as shown in FIG. 29 b) is exposed to the same outside temperature 602, but has no sudden rise in measured internal afternoon temperature 2908, the system has further validation that the temperature increase is not caused by climatic conditions. And finally, because the system has monitored and recorded the temperature readings from the thermostat in House C for each previous day, and has compared the changing times of the aberration with the progression of the sun, the system can distinguish the patterns likely to indicate solar overheating from other potential causes.

FIG. 30 illustrates the steps involved in calculating comparative thermal mass, or the thermal mass index. In step 3002, the server retrieves climate data related to home X. Such data may include current outside temperature, outside temperature during the preceding hours, outside humidity, wind direction and speed, whether the sun is obscured by clouds, and other factors. In step 3004, the server retrieves HVAC duty cycle data for home X. Such data may include target settings set by the thermostat in current and previous periods, the timing of switch-on and switch-off events and other data.

In step 3006, the server retrieves data regarding recent temperature readings as recorded by the thermostat in home X. In step 3008, the server retrieves profile data for home X. Such data may include square footage and number of floors, when the house was built and/or renovated, the extent to which it is insulated, its address, make, model and age of its furnace and air conditioning hardware, and other data.

In step 3010, the server retrieves the current inside temperature reading as transmitted by the thermostat. In step 3012, the server calculates the thermal mass index for the home under those conditions; that is, for example, it calculates the likely rate of change for internal temperature in home X from a starting point of 70 degrees when the outside temperature is 85 degrees at 3:00 PM on August 10th when the wind is blowing at 5 mph from the north and the sky is cloudy. The server accomplishes this by applying a basic algorithm that weighs each of these external variables as well as variables for various characteristics of the home itself (such as size, level of insulation, method of construction, etc.) and data from other houses and environments.

FIG. 31 illustrates the steps involved in diagnosing defects in the HVAC system for specific home X. In step 3102, the server retrieves climate data related to home X. Such data may include current outside temperature, outside temperature during the preceding hours, outside humidity, wind direction and speed, whether the sun is obscured by clouds, and other factors. In step 3104, the server retrieves HVAC duty cycle data for home X. Such data may include target settings set by the thermostat in current and previous periods, the timing of switch-on and switch-off events and other data.

In step 3106, the server retrieves data regarding current and recent temperature readings as recorded by the thermostat in home X. In step 3108, the server retrieves profile data for home X. Such data may include square footage and number of floors, when the house was built and/or renovated, the extent to which it is insulated, its address, make, model and age of its furnace and air conditioning hardware, and other data. In step 3110, the server retrieves comparative data from other houses that have thermostats that also report to the server.

Such data may include interior temperature readings, outside temperature for those specific locations, duty cycle data for the HVAC systems at those locations, profile data for the structures and HVAC systems in those houses and the calculated thermal mass index for those other houses. In step 3112, the server calculates the current relative efficiency of home X as compared to other homes. Those comparisons will take into account differences in size, location, age, etc in making those comparisons.

The server will also take into account that comparative efficiency is not absolute, but will vary depending on conditions. For example, a house that has extensive south-facing windows is likely to experience significant solar gain. On sunny winter days, that home will appear more efficient than on cloudy winter days. That same house will appear more efficient at times of day and year when trees or overhangs shade those windows than it will when summer sun reaches those windows. Thus the server will calculate efficiency under varying conditions.

In step 3114 the server compares the HVAC system's efficiency, corrected for the relevant conditions, to its efficiency in the past. If the current efficiency is substantially the same as the historical efficiency, the server concludes 3116 that there is no defect and the diagnostic routine ends. If the efficiency has changed, the server proceeds to compare the historical and current data against patterns of changes known to indicate specific problems. For example, in step 3118, the server compares that pattern of efficiency changes against the known pattern for a clogged air filter, which is likely to show a slow, gradual degradation over a period of weeks or even months.

If the pattern of degradation matches the clogged filter paradigm, the server creates and transmits to the homeowner a message 3120 alerting the homeowner to the possible problem. If the problem does not match the clogged filter paradigm, the system compares 3122 the pattern to the known pattern for a refrigerant leak, which is likely to show a degradation over a period of a few hours to a few days. If the pattern of degradation matches the refrigerant leak paradigm, the server creates and transmits to the homeowner a message 3124 alerting the homeowner to the possible problem.

If the problem does not match the refrigerant leak paradigm, the system compares 3126 the pattern to the known pattern for an open window or door, which is likely to show significant changes for relatively short periods at intervals uncorrelated with climatic patterns. If the pattern of degradation matches the open door/window paradigm, the server creates and transmits to the homeowner a message 3128 alerting the homeowner to the possible problem. If the problem does not match the refrigerant leak paradigm, the system continues to step through remaining know patterns N 3130 until either a pattern is matched 3132 or the list has been exhausted without a match 3134.

FIG. 32 illustrates the steps involved in diagnosing inaccurate thermostat readings due to improper location. In step 3202, the server retrieves climate data related to home X. Such data may include current outside temperature, outside temperature during the preceding hours, outside humidity, wind direction and speed, whether the sun is obscured by clouds, and other factors. In step 3204, the server retrieves HVAC duty cycle data for home X. Such data may include target settings set by the thermostat in current and previous periods, the timing of switch-on and switch-off events and other data.

In step 3206, the server retrieves data regarding current and recent temperature readings as recorded by the thermostat in home X. In step 3208, the server retrieves profile data for home X. Such data may include square footage and number of floors, when the house was built and/or renovated, the extent to which it is insulated, its address, make, model and age of its furnace and air conditioning hardware, and other data.

In step 3210, the server retrieves comparative data from other houses that have thermostats that also report to the server. Such data may include interior temperature readings, outside temperature for those specific locations, duty cycle data for the HVAC systems at those locations, profile data for the structures and HVAC systems in those houses and the calculated thermal mass index for those other houses.

In step 3212, the server calculates the expected thermostat temperature reading based upon the input data. In step 3214, the server compares the predicted and actual values. If the calculated and actual values are at least roughly equivalent, the server concludes 3216 that there is no thermostat-related anomaly. If the calculated and actual values are not roughly equivalent, the server retrieves additional historical information about past thermostat readings in step 3218.

In step 3220, the server retrieves solar progression data, i.e., information regarding the times at which the sun rises and sets on the days being evaluated at the location of the house being evaluated, and the angle of the sun at that latitude, etc. In step 3222, the server compares the characteristics of the anomalies over time, to see if, for example, abnormally high readings began at 3:06 on June 5th, 3:09 on June 6th, 3:12 on June 7th, and the solar progression data suggests that at the house being analyzed, that sun would be likely to reach a given place in that house three minutes later on each of those days.

If the thermostat readings do not correlate with the solar progression data, the server concludes 3224 that the sun is not causing the distortion by directly hitting the thermostat. If the thermostat readings do correlate with solar progression, the server then calculates 3226 the predicted duration of the distortion caused by the sun.

In step 3228, the server calculates the appropriate setpoint information to be used by the thermostat to maintain the desired temperature and correct for the distortion for the expected length of the event. For example, if the uncorrected setpoint during the predicted event is 72 degrees, and the sun is expected to elevate the temperature reading by eight degrees, the server will instruct the thermostat to maintain a setpoint of 80 degrees. In step 3230, the server sends the homeowner a message describing the problem.

One or more embodiments of the invention may be used to implement additional energy savings by implementing small, repeated changes in setpoint. Because energy consumption is directly proportional to setpoint—that is, the further a given setpoint diverges from the balance point (the natural inside temperature assuming no HVAC activity) in a given house under given conditions, the higher energy consumption will be to maintain temperature at that setpoint), energy will be saved by any strategy that over a given time frame lowers the average heating setpoint or raises the cooling setpoint.

It is therefore possible to save energy by adopting a strategy that takes advantage of human insensitivity to slow temperature ramping by incorporating a user's desired setpoint within the range of the ramp, but setting the average target temperature below the desired setpoint in the case of heating, and above it in the case of cooling. For example, a ramped summer setpoint that consisted of a repeated pattern of three phases of equal length set at 72° F., 73° F., and 74° F. would create an effective average setpoint of 73° F., but would generally be experienced by occupants as yielding at least roughly equivalent comfort as in a room set at a constant 72° F. Energy savings resulting from this approach have been shown to be in the range of 4-6%.

Embodiments of the invention can automatically generate optimized ramped setpoints that could save energy without compromising the comfort of the occupants. It would also be advantageous to create a temperature control system that could incorporate adaptive algorithms that could automatically determine when the ramped setpoints should not be applied due to a variety of exogenous conditions that make application of such ramped setpoints undesirable.

FIG. 33 represents the conventional programming of a thermostat and the resulting behavior of a home's HVAC system in the air conditioning context. The morning setpoint 3302 of 74 degrees remains constant from midnight until 9:00 AM, and the inside temperature 3304 varies more or less within the limits of the hysteresis band during that entire period. When the setpoint changes to 80 degrees 3306, the inside temperature 3308 varies within the hysteresis band around the new setpoint, and so on. Whether the average temperature is equal to, greater or less than the nominal setpoint will depend on weather conditions, the dynamic signature of the structure, and the efficiency and size of the HVAC system. But in most cases the average temperature will be at least roughly equivalent to the nominal setpoint.

FIG. 34 represents implementation of a three-phase ramped setpoint derived from the same user preferences as manifested by the settings shown in FIG. 33. Thus the user-selected setpoint for the morning is still 74 degrees, and is reflected in the setpoint 3404 at the start of each three-step cycle, but because (in the air conditioning context) the setpoint requested by the user is the lowest of the three discrete steps, rather than the middle step, the average setpoint will be one degree higher 3402, and the resulting average inside temperature will be roughly one degree warmer than the average temperature without use of the ramped setpoints, thereby saving energy.

In the currently preferred embodiment, the implementation of the ramped setpoints may be dynamic based upon both conditions inside the structure and other planned setpoint changes. Thus, for example, the ramped setpoints 3406, 3408 and 3410 may be timed so that the 9 AM change in user-determined setpoint from 74 degrees to 80 degrees is in effect anticipated, and the period in which the air conditioner is not used can be extended prior to the scheduled start time for the less energy-intensive setpoint. Similarly, because the server 106 is aware that a lower setpoint will begin at 5 PM. The timing can be adjusted to avoid excessively warm temperatures immediately prior to the scheduled setpoint change, which could cause noticeable discomfort relative to the new setpoint if the air conditioner is incapable of quickly reducing inside temperature on a given day based upon the expected slope of inside temperatures at that time 3412.

In order to implement such ramped setpoints automatically, algorithms may be created. These algorithms may be generated and/or executed as instructions on remote server 106 and the resulting setpoint changes can be transmitted to a given thermostat on a just-in-time basis or, if the thermostat 108 is capable of storing future settings, they may be transferred in batch mode to such thermostats. Basic parameters used to generate such algorithms include:

the number of discrete phases to be used;

the temperature differential associated with each phase; and

the duration of each phase

In order to increase user comfort and thus maximize consumer acceptance, additional parameters may be considered, including:

time of day

outside weather conditions

recent history of manual inputs

recent pre-programmed setpoint changes.

Time of day may be relevant because, for example, if the home is typically unoccupied at a given time, there is no need for perceptual programming. Outside weather is relevant because comfort is dependent not just on temperature as sensed by a thermostat, but also includes radiant differentials. On extremely cold days, even if the inside dry-bulb temperature is within normal comfort range, radiant losses due to cold surfaces such as single-glazed windows can cause subjective discomfort; thus on such days occupants may be more sensitive to ramping. Recent manual inputs (e.g., programming overrides) may create situations in which exceptions should be taken; depending on the context, recent manual inputs may either suspend the ramping of setpoints or simply alter the baseline temperature from which the ramping takes place.

FIG. 35 shows the steps used in the core ramped setpoint algorithm in the context of a remotely managed thermostat system. In step 3502 the application determines whether to instantiate the algorithm based upon external scheduling criteria. In step 3504 the application running on a remote server retrieves from the thermostat the data generated by or entered into the thermostat, including current temperature settings, HVAC status and inside temperature. The algorithm performs preliminary logical tests at that point to determine whether further processing is required. For example, in the heating context, if the inside temperature as reported by the thermostat 108 is more than 1 degree higher than the current setpoint, the algorithm may determine that running the ramped setpoint program will have no effect and therefore terminate.

In step 3506 the algorithm advances to the next phase from the most recent phase; i.e., if the algorithm is just starting, the phase changes from “0” to “1”; if it has just completed the third phase of a three-phase ramp, the phase will change from “2” to “0”. In step 3508 the application determines if the current phase is “0”. If it is, then in step 3510 the algorithm determines whether current setpoint equals the setpoint in the previous phase. If so, which implies no manual overrides or other setpoint adjustments have occurred during the most recent phase, then in step 3512 the algorithm sets the new setpoint back to the previous phase “0” setpoint. If not, then in step 3514, the algorithm keeps the current temperature setting as setpoint for this new phase. In step 3516, the algorithm logs the resulting new setpoint as the new phase “0” setpoint for use in subsequent phases.

Returning to the branch after step 3508, if the current phase at that point is not phase “0”, then in step 3520, the algorithm determines whether the current setpoint is equal to the setpoint temperature in the previous phase. If not, which implies setpoints have been adjusted by the house occupants, thermostat schedules, or other events, then in step 3522, the application resets the phase to “0”, resets the new setpoint associated with phase “0” to equal the current temperature setting, and sets the current setting to that temperature. Alternatively, if the current temperature setting as determined in step 3520 is equal to the setpoint in the previous phase, then in step 3524 new setpoint is made to equal current setpoint plus the differential associated with each phase change. In step 3526 the “previous-phase setpoint” variable is reset to equal the new setpoint in anticipation of its use during a subsequent iteration.

FIG. 36 shows one embodiment of the overall control application implementing the algorithm described in FIG. 35. In step 3602, the control application retrieves the current setting from the thermostat. In step 3604, the setting is logged in database 300. In step 3606, the control program determines whether other algorithms that have higher precedence than the ramped setpoint algorithm are to be run. If another algorithm is to be run prior to the ramped setpoint algorithm, then the other program is executed in step 3608. If there are no alternate algorithms that should precede the ramped setpoint application then in step 1310, the control program determines whether the thermostat has been assigned to execute the ramped setpoint program. If not, the control program skips the remaining actions in the current iteration. If the program is set to run, then in step 3612 the algorithm retrieves from database 300 the rules and parameters governing the implementation of the algorithm for the current application of the program.

In step 3614, the algorithm determines whether one or more conditions that preclude application of the algorithm, such as extreme outside weather conditions, whether the home is likely to be occupied, etc. If any of the exclusionary conditions apply, the application skips execution of the ramped setpoint algorithm for the current iteration. If not, the application proceeds to step 3616 in which the application determines whether the setpoint has been altered by manual overrides, thermostat setback schedule changes, or other algorithms as compared to the previous value as stored in database 300. If setpoint has been altered, the application proceeds to step 3620 discussed below.

In step 3618, the program described in FIG. 35 is executed. In step 3620, the application resets the phase to “0”. Certain temperature setting variables are reset in anticipation of their use in subsequent phases. These variables include the new phase 0 temperature setting which is anchored to the current actual temperature setting, and the new previous-phase setpoint which will be used for identifying setpoint overrides in the subsequent phase.

In step 3622, the system records the changes to the thermostat settings to database 300. In step 3624, the system records the changes to the phase status of the algorithm to database 300. In step 3626, the application determines whether the new temperature setting differs from the current setting. If they are the same, the application skips applying changes to the thermostat. If they are different, then in step 3628, the application transmits revised settings to the thermostat. In step 3630, the application then hibernates for the specified duration until it is invoked again by beginning at step 3602 again.

An embodiment of the subject invention may also be used to detect occupancy through the use of software related to electronic devices located inside the conditioned structure, such as the browser running on computer or other device 104. FIG. 37 represents the screen of a computer or other device 104 using a graphical user interface connected to the Internet. The screen shows that a browser 3700 is displayed on computer 104. In one embodiment, a background application installed on computer 104 detects activity by a user of the computer, such as cursor movement, keystrokes or otherwise, and signals the application running on server 106 that activity has been detected. Server 106 may then, depending on context, (a) transmit a signal to thermostat 108 changing setpoint because occupancy has been detected at a time when the system did not expect occupancy; (b) signal the background application running on computer 104 to trigger a software routine that instantiates a pop-up window 3702 that asks the user if the server should change the current setpoint, alter the overall programming of the system based upon a new occupancy pattern, etc. The user can respond by clicking the cursor on “yes” button 3704 or “No” button 3706. Equivalent means of signalling activity may be employed with interactive television programming, gaming systems, etc.

FIG. 38 is a flowchart showing the steps involved in the operation of one embodiment of the subject invention. In step 3802, computer 104 transmits a message to server 106 via the Internet indicating that there is user activity on computer 104. This activity can be in the form of keystrokes, cursor movement, input via a television remote control, etc. In step 3804 the application queries database 300 to retrieve setting information for the HVAC system. In step 3806 the application determines whether the current HVAC program is intended to apply when the home is occupied or unoccupied.

If the HVAC settings then in effect are intended to apply for an occupied home, then the application terminates for a specified interval. If the HVAC settings then in effect are intended to apply when the home is unoccupied, then in step 3808 the application will retrieve from database 300 the user's specific preferences for how to handle this situation. If the user has previously specified (at the time that the program was initially set up or subsequently modified) that the user prefers that the system automatically change settings under such circumstances, the application then proceeds to step 3816, in which it changes the programmed setpoint for the thermostat to the setting intended for the house when occupied. If the user has previously specified that the application should not make such changes without further user input, then in step 3810 the application transmits a command to computer 104 directing the browser to display a message informing the user that the current setting assumes an unoccupied house and asking the user in step 3812 to choose whether to either keep the current settings or revert to the pre-selected setting for an occupied home. If the user selects to retain the current setting, then in step 3814 the application will write to database 300 the fact that the users has so elected and terminate. If the user elects to change the setting, then in step 3816 the application transmits the revised setpoint to the thermostat. In step 3814 the application writes the updated setting information to database 300.

FIG. 39 is a flowchart that shows how an embodiment of the invention can be used to select different HVAC settings based upon its ability to identify which of multiple potential occupants is using the computer attached to the system. In step 3902 computer 104 transmits to server 106 information regarding the type of activity detected on computer 104. Such information could include the specific program or channel being watched if, for example, computer 104 is used to watch television. The information matching, for example, TV channel 7 at 4:00 PM on a given date to specific content may be made by referring to Internet-based or other widely available scheduling sources for such content. In step 3904 server 106 retrieves from database 300 previously logged data regarding viewed programs. In step 3906 server 106 retrieves previously stored data regarding the residents of the house.

For example, upon initiating the service, one or more users may have filled out online questionnaires sharing their age, gender, schedules, viewing preferences, etc. In step 3908, server 106 compares the received information about user activity to previously stored information retrieved from database 300 about the occupants and their viewing preferences. For example, if computer 104 indicates to server 106 that the computer is being used to watch golf, the server may conclude that an adult male is watching; if computer 104 indicates that it is being used to watch children's programming, server 106 may conclude that a child is watching.

In step 3910 the server transmits a query to the user in order to verify the match, asking, in effect, “Is that you Bob?” In step 3912, based upon the user's response, the application determines whether the correct user has been identified. If the answer is no, then the application proceeds to step 3916. If the answer is yes, then in step 3914 the application retrieves the temperature settings for the identified occupant. In step 3916 the application writes to database 300 the programming information and information regarding matching of users to that programming.

In an alternative embodiment, the application running on computer 104 may respond to general user inputs (that is, inputs not specifically intended to instantiate communication with the remote server) by querying the user whether a given action should be taken. For example, in a system in which the computer 104 is a web-enabled television or web-enabled set-top device connected to a television as a display, software running on computer 104 detects user activity, and transmits a message indicating such activity to server 106. The trigger for this signal may be general, such as changing channels or adjusting volume with the remote control or a power-on event. Upon receipt by server 106 of this trigger, server 106 transmits instructions to computer 104 causing it to display a dialog box asking the user whether the user wishes to change HVAC settings.

Additional functionality is also envisioned as part of different embodiments of the invention. For example, information from historic data may be used to predict how long it will take a user to reach home from the current coordinates, and the estimated arrival time may be used to calculate optimal cycling strategies for the HVAC system. In addition, information about traffic conditions may be integrated into these calculations, so that the geospatial data relative to mobile device 105 may indicate that a user is taking his or her normal route, but because of a traffic jam, is likely to come home later than would otherwise be expected. The characteristics of a given location may be used to infer arrival times as well. For example, if the geospatial data indicates that the user of mobile device 105 has arrived at the supermarket on his way home, a delay of 20 minutes is likely, whereas if the user has parked at a restaurant, the delay is likely to be one hour.

It is also possible to incorporate more sophisticated heuristics in incorporating the varying preferences of multiple occupants of a given home or other structure. For example, rules can be structured so that User #1's preferences control during the heating season, but not during the cooling season; User #2's preferences might control during certain times of the day but not others; User #3's preferences may take precedence whenever they result in a more energy efficient strategy, but not when they result in increased energy use, and so on.

While particular embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it is apparent that changes and modifications may be made without departing from the invention in its broader aspects, and, therefore, that the invention may be carried out in other ways without departing from the true spirit and scope. These and other equivalents are intended to be covered by the following claims: 

What is claimed is:
 1. A method for varying temperature setpoints for an HVAC system comprising: accessing stored data comprising a plurality of internal temperature measurements taken within a structure and a plurality of outside temperature measurements relating to temperatures outside the structure; using the stored data to predict a temperature inside the structure in response to at least changes in the outside temperatures; determining with one or more computer processors, the geographic location of a mobile electronic device that is connected to a network; associating said mobile electronic device to a structure having a known geographic location that contains one or more networked climate control devices; determining with one or more computer processors, whether the location of said mobile electronic device indicates occupancy of said structure by a person associated with said mobile electronic device; using route data to determine whether a user of the mobile electronic device is traveling to said structure; using traffic data to predict a length of time for a user of said mobile device to reach said structure; and adjusting with one or more computer processors, the temperature setpoint on said controller for an HVAC system for said structure based upon said predicted length of time for a user of the mobile device to reach said structure, said predicted temperature inside said structure, and whether or not said structure is deemed to be occupied.
 2. The method of claim 1 in which said mobile electronic device is a telephone.
 3. The method of claim 1 in which said networked mobile electronic device is a personal digital assistant.
 4. The method of claim 1 in which said mobile electronic device is connected to the Internet.
 5. The method of claim 1 in which the method for determining the geographic location of a mobile electronic device is the global positioning system.
 6. The method of claim 1 in which the method for determining the geographic location of a mobile electronic device is based upon estimation of the distance between the mobile electronic device and one or more antennas used to receive radio signals from said mobile electronic device.
 7. The method of claim 1 in which said mobile electronic device communicates with a remote server.
 8. The method of claim 1 in which said variation of temperature setpoints is logged to a database.
 9. The method of claim in 1 in which said variation of temperature setpoints is initiated by a remote computer.
 10. The method of claim 1 in which said temperature setpoints are varied automatically.
 11. The method of claim 1 in which an occupant is prompted to confirm occupancy prior to adjustment of said temperature setpoint.
 12. A system for altering the setpoint on a thermostat for space conditioning of a structure comprising: at least a database of stored data comprising a plurality of internal temperature measurements taken within a structure and a plurality of outside temperature measurements relating to temperatures outside the structure; one or more computer processors configured to use the stored data to predict temperatures inside the structure in response to at least changes in the outside temperatures; at least one thermostat having at least one temperature setting associated with the presence of one or more occupants in said structure, and at least one temperature setting associated with the absence of occupants in said structure; one or more mobile electronic devices having at least a user interface; where said mobile electronic devices and said thermostat are connected to a network; one or more computer processors configured to use route data to determine whether a user of the mobile electronic device is traveling to said structure; one or more computer processors configured to use traffic data to predict a length of time for a user of said mobile device to reach said structure; and one or more computer processors configured to adjust at least one setpoint on said thermostat based upon said predicted length of time for a user of the mobile device to reach said structure, said predicted temperature inside said structure, and whether or not said structure is deemed to be occupied based upon the geographic location of said electronic device.
 13. The system of claim 12 in which said mobile electronic device is a telephone.
 14. The system of claim 12 in which said networked mobile electronic device is a personal digital assistant.
 15. The system of claim 12 in which said mobile electronic device is connected to the Internet.
 16. The system of claim 12 in which the method for determining the geographic location of a mobile electronic device is the global positioning system.
 17. The system of claim 12 in which the method for determining the geographic location of a mobile electronic device is based upon estimation of the distance between the mobile electronic device and one or more antennas used to receive radio signals from said mobile electronic device.
 18. The system of claim 12 in which said mobile electronic device communicates with a remote server.
 19. The system of claim 12 in which variation of said at least one setpoint is logged to a database.
 20. The system of claim in 12 in which variation of said at least one setpoint is initiated by a remote computer.
 21. The system of claim 12 in which said at least one setpoint is varied automatically.
 22. The system of claim 12 in which an occupant is prompted to confirm occupancy prior to adjustment of said at least one setpoint. 